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Solar Module Industry May See Consolidation Due to Oversupply: Interview

Cell manufacturing, energy storage, and policy certainty will shape India’s renewable energy market

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India’s renewable energy sector is entering a new phase as more developers opt for combining solar and wind projects with energy storage to leverage benefits like improved power availability and grid stability. As challenges like curtailment hamper renewables generation, battery energy and pumped storage have become key for efficient utilization of solar and wind projects.

On the sidelines of the Mercom India Renewables Summit 2026, Mercom India spoke with Khalid Nadeem, Chief Operating Officer at SAEL, about the growing role of battery and pumped storage, the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers List-II  mandate for solar cells, and the policy support required to sustain renewable energy investments.

Edited excerpts from the interview:

Could you tell us about SAEL and its future plans?

SAEL is an integrated renewable energy company with operations spread across solar independent power production, waste-to-energy projects, and solar manufacturing, including cells and modules.

We have approximately 3.5 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity. We are also developing an integrated 5 GW solar cell and module manufacturing facility near Noida.

On the project development side, we have an operational and under-construction renewable energy portfolio of approximately 8 GW.

Renewable energy curtailment has emerged as a concern in several states. How can the industry address this issue?

Excess renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed must be stored and supplied during peak demand hours.

Along with storage, states must explore shifting certain categories of electricity demand from nighttime to daytime, when solar generation is available.

A combination of load shifting and energy storage should help address curtailment and stabilize the system over the next two to three years.

Will storage become an essential part of renewable energy projects over the next few years?

Storage will have to become an integral part of renewable energy development because renewable power is intermittent and  electricity demand varies throughout the day.

Solar projects generate electricity during daylight hours, but the demand may peak even during evenings. Storage allows electricity generated during periods of low demand to be shifted to peak-demand hours.

There are two ways to address this mismatch. The first is to move electricity consumption to periods when renewable generation is available. Several state governments are already working on shifting nighttime demand to daytime hours so that more solar power can be consumed directly.

The second option is to store excess generation and discharge it during peak hours. Both measures must be adopted together to improve utilization of renewable energy.

What role will storage play in improving grid stability and flexibility?

Storage can be critical to supplying electricity when demand is at its highest. Firm and dispatchable renewable energy projects and peak power supply arrangements cannot be developed using renewable generation alone because developers cannot control when the solar or wind resource will be available.

A solar project will generate power during the day. If electricity demand rises in the evening, ample storage is required to shift that power to nighttime.

Considerable investment is already flowing into battery energy storage systems, and this segment will become increasingly important over the next two to five years.

How important will pumped storage be alongside battery energy storage?

Pumped storage will play a major role, particularly for applications with requirements for long durations.

Battery energy storage was initially considered more suitable for shorter durations of two to three hours. For storage durations beyond four hours, pumped storage is more economical and practical.

As more pumped storage capacity becomes operational, it will provide substantial support for long-duration renewable energy integration.

What is your assessment of the implementation of ALMM List-II for solar cells?

ALMM List-II is a positive step and will support the growth of domestic solar cell manufacturing.

However, the cell manufacturing capacity that the companies had committed to commission by 2026 has not  progressed at the expected pace. The industry might take up to a year to meet the current domestic cell demand.

Module manufacturing involves a straightforward assembly operation, while the production of cell manufacturing is more technology intensive. This is one of the reasons behind the delay in expansion of domestic cell capacity.

There is a wide gap between India’s module and cell manufacturing capacities. How could this affect the industry?

India is likely to face an oversupply of solar modules. As is the case with any industry experiencing rapid capacity expansion, this could eventually result in consolidation, mergers, and acquisitions.

Standalone module manufacturers that have not integrated backward into cell manufacturing could face challenges in the short term.

A large share of the new cell manufacturing capacity is expected to be used internally by integrated manufacturers. Only limited quantities may be available for sale in the open market, which could create sourcing difficulties for standalone module manufacturers.

What policy changes would you like to see for energy storage and renewable energy development?

Policy consistency is more important than introducing frequent new measures.

Renewable energy projects involve substantial capital investment, and their expected returns are calculated at the time of development. Changes to deviation settlement mechanisms, grid-injection requirements, or other operating conditions after a project has been commissioned can affect its commercial viability.

Once a project is awarded and developed, its regulatory framework should remain stable.

Why is a long-term renewable energy demand outlook important for manufacturers and developers?

Majority of the investment in domestic renewable energy manufacturing has occurred over the past two years. Companies investing in cells, ingots, wafers, modules, and balance of system components need visibility on demand for at least the next 10 years.

The government should provide clarity on the market beyond 2030, including the expected annual capacity additions and potential new opportunities for manufacturers and developers.

A clear projection of approximately 75 GW to 80 GW of annual renewable energy demand would help investors, manufacturers, and project developers plan their capacity additions more effectively.

Can India sustain its current renewable energy growth over the next five years?

India has continued to add substantial renewable energy capacity despite several constraints. However, future growth could be affected by transmission limitations, deviation settlement regulations, land acquisition, and other project development challenges.

Large renewable energy projects require significant land parcels. The government can support continued growth by simplifying land acquisition and providing a clearer long-term market outlook.

Policies addressing land availability and defining the expected demand trajectory over the next decade will help manufacturers and developers make informed investment decisions.

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