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					</table>Developers are accelerating project commissioning ahead of the December 31, 2026, Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/mnre-clarifies-almm-list-ii-rules-for-solar-cell-compliance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exemption</a> deadline, tightening module supply and pushing up project costs.
Industry executives say the rush to procure in the coming months could tighten TOPCon module availability and place additional pressure on already constrained domestic cell supply.
As the industry shifts toward domestic sourcing of solar cells and modules under ALMM List-II, it faces a significant mismatch between module and cell manufacturing capacity. Under ALMM, 215.5 GW of <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/solar-module-capacity-under-almm-grows-to-215-5-gw" target="_blank" rel="noopener">module</a> capacity is listed, compared with only 31.76 GW of <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/solar-cell-capacity-under-almm-list-ii-grows-to-31-76-gw" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cell</a> capacity, heightening concerns about near-term supply disruptions.
<a href="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ALMM12-2.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-103098 size-full" src="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ALMM12-2.png" alt="" width="546" height="562" srcset="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ALMM12-2.png 546w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ALMM12-2-291x300.png 291w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 546px) 100vw, 546px" /></a>
Project Activity Accelerates 
Developers and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) companies are witnessing a revival in project activity that had slowed amid uncertainty over the implementation of ALMM List-II.
Mayur Misra, Director and CEO of <a href="https://corrit.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corrit Energy and Infra</a>, said leads for new solar projects fell by 40-50% after ALMM List-II came into effect, but the exemption until December 31, 2026 has restored demand to earlier levels.
Developers say that they are seeing a sharp rise in leads for smaller projects of up to 1 MW, many of which are being pushed through on accelerated execution timelines.
Rahul Patil, Manager, Business Development at <a href="https://www.bubhandari.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">B.U Bhandari Energ</a>y, said he expects commissioning volumes through December 31 to be 20% to 30% higher than a normal cycle.
According to Nishant Sood, Managing Director at <a href="https://www.candi.solar/in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Candi Solar</a>, the acceleration is particularly visible in commercial and industrial (C&amp;I) rooftop projects.
He also noted that the five-month exemption period is too short for a new open access project to move from initiation to commissioning due to longer development and approval cycles.
Sood added that projects already at an advanced stage can be fast-tracked to reduce the cost and compliance risks associated with ALMM List-II.
Manufacturers also acknowledge that the ALMM List-II deadline has changed procurement timelines, although they largely view the current increase in activity as demand being advanced rather than entirely new demand.
Vinay Thadani, Director and CEO of <a href="https://thegrewsolar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grew Solar</a>, said ALMM List-II enforcement has accelerated procurement, particularly among developers of C&amp;I rooftop, open access and other utility-scale projects seeking to secure compliant modules ahead of the deadline.
Supply Pressure Emerging
Developers expect the shortened procurement cycle to tighten module availability, with supply constraints likely to peak as more projects move into execution during October to December 2026.
Sandesh Naik, Chief Financial Officer at AB Energia Solutions, said the immediate constraint is likely to be for TOPCon modules, given their increasing adoption across new utility-scale projects.
Patil said inverter availability is also tightening, and logistics schedules are becoming less predictable.
He added that Mono PERC modules are more readily available than TOPCon, but inventories are being quickly absorbed as developers finalize orders.
With about five months still available for project commissioning, Patil said ALMM-listed module availability remains adequate for near-term requirements.
Thadani said lead times, previously four to six weeks, could stretch to eight to twelve weeks during peak procurement.
He also acknowledged that limited domestic solar cell capacity remains a major constraint.
Module Prices Expected to Rise
Developers say module prices have already been under upward pressure since the exemption deadline was extended.
Sood expects Mono PERC module prices to rise by approximately ₹0.5 (~$0.005)/Wp to ₹1 (~$0.0104)/Wp and TOPCon prices by ₹0.75 (~$0.0078)/Wp to ₹1.5 (~$0.015)/Wp, with pricing and availability pressures becoming more pronounced during October-December 2026.
Patil said that Mono PERC prices are likely to rise by 4% to 6%, while TOPCon prices could increase by 6% to 10%, depending on the manufacturer and order size.
Developers expect the most acute supply-demand pressure during October to December 2026, potentially extending even after.
Naik said the bigger risk could be the premium developers are willing to pay for assured delivery rather than the headline module price. He added that, with projects approaching a hard commissioning deadline, developers may prioritize availability over lower prices.
Acknowledging the upward pressure on module prices, Tanmoy Duari, CEO at <a href="https://axitecsolar.com/en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Axitec Energy</a>, said periods of strong demand can create temporary pricing pressure, but it is difficult to attribute price movements solely to the ALMM-II timeline or predict quarter-specific constraints accurately.
Thadani expects supply constraints to become more pronounced during the latter part of FY 2027 (Jan-March 2027) and the early months of FY 2028 (April-June 2027) if the current pace of project execution continues.
Developers Advance Procurement
The tighter commissioning window and concerns over supply constraints are prompting developers to place orders earlier than usual.
According to Patil, developers are placing orders four to six weeks earlier, diversifying sourcing across multiple ALMM-approved cell manufacturers and locking in framework agreements to secure manufacturing capacity.
Naik said even projects with land, grid connectivity, and major approvals already in place could face a four-to-eight week delay if module procurement is not secured early.
While TOPCon remains the preferred choice for efficiency and long-term yield, more developers are now willing to accept ALMM-listed Mono PERC modules where timelines are tight, favoring predictable availability and shorter lead times over higher-efficiency technology.
Project Costs to Rise
Higher module prices, expedited logistics, and accelerated construction could raise overall project costs.
Sood expects project costs to rise by approximately 5% compared to the January to March 2026 period while Naik expects a smaller impact for projects in advanced stages.
For projects running behind schedule, developers say costs could rise further due to expedited logistics, additional construction resources, and financing costs.
Patil said projects that secured module supply two to three months ago is likely to see minimal impact, while those purchasing closer to the deadline could see EPC cost increases of 3% to 7%.
In states where storage integration is mandated, the combination of ALMM List-II compliance and storage requirements could place further pressure on projects already operating on narrow margins.
Sood explained that solar projects have traditionally benefited from discounts to grid tariffs, aided in some markets by favorable banking provisions. Battery storage system costs, combined with a likely premium of ₹7 (~$0.07)/Wp- ₹8 (~$0.08)/Wp for domestic cells, could reduce customer savings and extend payback periods.
He said the combination of higher capital costs, longer procurement timelines, and lower customer savings could delay investment decisions among C&amp;I consumers, particularly those with tighter return thresholds or shorter payback expectations.
Even a 2% to 4% increase in total project costs could materially affect equity internal rates of return and debt service coverage ratios.
Demand Could Taper After Deadline
Developers expect some of the module demand currently being deferred into the exemption window to weaken once the window expires.
Misra said demand is likely to fall by 40% to 50% immediately after the exemption ends.
However, Patil expects a secondary demand wave from PM Surya Ghar projects that remain exempt from ALMM List-II compliance until March 31, 2027.
Sood said that higher costs associated with DCR modules could increase project capital expenditure and lengthen payback periods, disincentivizing price-sensitive C&amp;I consumers. However, he felt long-term C&amp;I solar demand to remain driven by high retail electricity tariffs, sustainability commitments, and the need for competitively priced power.
Module manufacturers, meanwhile, do not expect overall module demand to weaken in the foreseeable future.
Thadani said module demand is expected to remain strong, supported by utility-scale projects, rooftop solar, open-access developments, and rising clean energy adoption among C&amp;I consumers.
The exemption has created a temporary window of accelerated procurement rather than resolving the underlying supply imbalance. How smoothly the market transitions beyond December will depend on the pace at which domestic cell capacity ramps up, developers secure compliant equipment, and project economics adjust to the higher cost of domestically sourced components.

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