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					</table>The implementation of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List II mandate for solar cells is causing a TOPCon module supply squeeze, with developers, EPC contractors, and rooftop installers preferring them for their higher efficiency and output.
Industry sources say there is an adequate supply of mono PERC cells, but they are not finding takers. This has created a technology-specific squeeze even as overall domestic manufacturing capacity scales gradually.
According to <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/research" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mercom India Research</a>, India&#8217;s ALMM-compliant module manufacturing capacity stands at over 193 GW, and domestic cell manufacturing capacity is at about 31 GW as of March 2026, leaving module capacity more than seven times larger than cell capacity.
<a href="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ALMM-cell-shortage-1.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-97154 size-full" src="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ALMM-cell-shortage-1.png" alt="ALMM cell shortage" width="718" height="328" srcset="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ALMM-cell-shortage-1.png 718w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ALMM-cell-shortage-1-300x137.png 300w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ALMM-cell-shortage-1-650x297.png 650w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ALMM-cell-shortage-1-624x285.png 624w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ALMM-cell-shortage-1-600x274.png 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 718px) 100vw, 718px" /></a>
Subsidy-Linked Projects Drive DCR Demand
Demand for DCR-compliant modules has increased sharply from subsidy-linked and government-backed projects. Residential rooftop projects under PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana are driving much of the demand, followed by PM KUSUM, net-metering projects, open access installations, and compliance-linked commercial and industrial projects.
Industry sources across the board are reporting increasing demand for DCR-compliant TOPCon modules. According to Amod Anand, Co-Founder and Director at <a href="https://www.loomsolar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Loom Solar</a>, customers are no longer evaluating modules only on price and wattage. Buyers are also checking DCR certification and delivery timelines.
Tanmoy Duari, Chief Executive Officer at <a href="https://axitecsolar.com/in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AXITEC Energy India,</a> said ALMM List II has increased inquiries and confirmed orders for DCR-compliant modules, particularly from customers who had deferred procurement decisions until there was regulatory clarity. He said the strongest demand is coming from PM Surya Ghar, PM KUSUM, and utility-scale projects, as well as from open access and net-metering projects.
As Raman Bhatia, Founder and Managing Director at <a href="https://www.servotech.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Servotech Renewable Power System</a>, put it, &#8220;Developers in these segments have no choice but to wait for supply because government subsidies are directly tied to DCR compliance.&#8221;
Open access and net-metered commercial and industrial projects are facing greater procurement pressure, with some project owners seeking case-by-case extensions from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to protect investments already committed.
Lead Times, Prices Grow
DCR module prices have risen as demand for domestic cells has increased. Delivery timelines have also lengthened, especially for high-efficiency TOPCon modules.
Before ALMM List II, imported cells and non-DCR supply chains gave developers more flexibility. The market now depends more on domestic cell availability, supplier allocation, and prior capacity booking.
Sandesh Naik, Chief Financial Officer at <a href="https://abenergia.co.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AB Energia</a>, said tighter availability of DCR-compliant modules and domestic cells has resulted in higher prices and longer procurement cycles than 6-9 months ago.
Projects under open access and net-metering frameworks have seen timeline adjustments, and developers are placing greater emphasis on execution certainty before committing to new opportunities.
&#8220;Procurement is no longer a transactional activity but has become a critical component of project risk management,&#8221; Naik said.
Duari said the market has shifted from price-led procurement to compliance-led procurement, making supply chain reliability more important for developers and EPC contractors.
He said standard module deliveries before June 2026 could typically be planned within two to four weeks. Current DCR module lead times are generally 6-10 weeks, depending on order size and cell availability, while larger utility-scale projects often require advance production booking. For most manufacturers without cell capacity, acquiring cells is nearly impossible in the current market.
Smaller EPCs Face Greater Pressure
Large and scheduled orders are receiving priority allocation. Smaller EPC contractors, distributors, and vendors are facing longer delivery timelines because they often lack the purchasing power to pre-book inventory.
Another project developer said projects that completed module procurement before the DCR transition have avoided immediate disruptions. &#8220;The impact is being felt more in new project pipelines. DCR-compliant modules are coming at a higher cost, and that pricing gap is delaying project closure and investment decisions.&#8221;
Suppliers are asking for advance bookings, extending delivery timelines, and prioritizing bulk orders over smaller retail purchases.
TOPCon Drives the Supply Squeeze
The current supply pressure is not uniform across technologies. TOPCon cells remain tighter because demand has shifted faster than domestic cell capacity additions.
Avinash Hiranandani, Vice Chairman and Managing Director at <a href="https://www.renewsysworld.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RenewSys India</a>, said the market is facing a technology preference issue rather than a broad shortage of domestic cells. Mono PERC cells are available, but developers and EPC contractors are largely choosing TOPCon modules.
However, the transition from MonoPERC to TOPCon has been underway since 2025, and it is well known that project developers prefer TOPCon for its higher efficiency, among other benefits.
Bhatia said the squeeze is sharper in advanced N-type TOPCon technologies, where local cell availability remains limited. &#8220;We are facing an immediate supply-demand squeeze, especially for advanced N-type TOPCon technologies. This market frenzy has driven a steep price surge, forcing final panel rates higher. Delivery lead times have also stretched as buyers compete for limited local cells.&#8221;
According to Anand, sourcing remains manageable for planned production with advanced procurement and supplier coordination. The difficulty arises in sudden large requirements, urgent project timelines, and high-efficiency TOPCon requirements.
The shortage has also increased pricing power for a limited number of domestic cell suppliers. Supplier concentration remains a concern, particularly for high-efficiency cell technologies.
&#8220;No one is totally immune to the upstream realities. The severe shortage of high-efficiency TOPCon cells and supplier concentration means cell pricing power remains tightly held by a few dominant players, pushing lead times out for everyone,&#8221; Bhatia said.
Delayed Procurement Added to the Rush
The current shortage has also been intensified by procurement timing.
Vinay Rustagi, Chief Business Officer at <a href="https://premierenergies.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Premier Energies</a>, said India&#8217;s cell manufacturing capacity is well-equipped to meet local demand, with capacity expected to double over the next nine months.
He said many customers withheld orders while expecting an extension to the ALMM List II deadline. When the extension did not happen, they sought immediate deliveries, squeezing supplies.
Industry executives broadly expect supply pressure to ease as domestic cell manufacturing expands, although they differ on the timeline.
While Premier Energies and Hiranandani expect the issue to ease within two to four months, others fear a longer wait of a few quarters.
According to Mercom&#8217;s data, as of May 2026, 57.8 GW of cells were scheduled for commissioning, but only 31 GW were commissioned. If similar delays continue and longer cell stabilization timelines are factored in, Q1 2027 could be when the supply eases.
AB Energia&#8217;s Naik views the current situation as a transition phase rather than a structural constraint, provided domestic cell manufacturing continues expanding and policy remains stable.
&#8220;Continued additions in domestic cell manufacturing, policy stability, and better coordination across the supply chain will be critical for pricing and project execution to normalize,&#8221; he said.
Duari expects additional domestic cell manufacturing facilities to become operational over the next 12-18 months, particularly in high-efficiency N-type technologies. As these capacities ramp up, he expects improved availability of ALMM-approved cells, more predictable module delivery schedules, and gradual normalization of DCR pricing.
Some companies like Servotech expect complete stabilization to take longer, likely until late 2027 or early 2028, as domestic cell capacity catches up with module assembly capacity.
Manufacturers said nearly another 100 GW of cell manufacturing capacity is expected to come online by the end of the year, bringing total domestic cell capacity to over 130 GW, but Mercom data shows that approximately 56.8 GW of cell capacity could come online by the end of the year due to longer stabilization timelines.
They also noted that the current annual domestic demand for cells is estimated at around 40-50 GW. So, if the entire announced cell capacity is commissioned on schedule, the supply-side situation could become comfortable.
But in the near term, project development activity has slowed, and most manufacturers without cell capacity to produce modules are having to temporarily shut down module lines.
Based on current market conditions, it is pretty clear that the ALMM cell mandate in June was early, and a short extension could have made the transition much smoother without hindering project development or procurement cycles.

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