With 139 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity registered under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), India’s solar manufacturing industry may be heading toward overcapacity. Manufacturing capacity now far exceeds near-term domestic demand, raising concerns over capacity underutilization, margin pressure, and delayed investment decisions.

According to Amit Barve, Chief Executive Officer of Rayzon Solar, India’s solar module manufacturing capacity could significantly outpace domestic demand, even after additional domestic solar cell manufacturing capacity comes online.

During an interview on the sidelines of the Mercom India Renewables Summit 2026, held in New Delhi on July 1 and 2, Barve discussed the mismatch between solar manufacturing capacity and market demand, shortages of cells compliant with domestic content requirements, implementation timelines for wafers and ingots, skilled workforce requirements, and the technologies likely to shape the future of India’s solar manufacturing sector.

Here are the edited excerpts from the interview:

The industry has discussed the mismatch between module and cell capacity. With around 139 GW of modules registered under the ALMM and more than 250 GW of additional capacity announced or under construction, who will absorb this capacity if a significant portion comes online? Could the market face an oversupply?

The industry must examine the gap between cell and module manufacturing capacity, but it should also consider the gap between the size of the market and the manufacturing capacity being established.

Even if cell and module capacities become aligned, domestic demand may not be sufficient to absorb production. Annual demand is unlikely to exceed 50 GW-60 GW over the next two years because of transmission infrastructure constraints, policy uncertainties, and delays in substation availability.

This could create significant challenges, particularly for newer manufacturers without an established track record or manufacturing experience. Additional capacity may remain underutilized because the domestic market may not be able to absorb it.

Export opportunities are also limited. The U.S. was one of the few markets where Indian manufacturers had an opportunity because of its regulations. In most other countries, Indian manufacturers may find it difficult to compete with Chinese prices.

With much of the listed domestic cell capacity owned by vertically integrated manufacturers, is there a shortage of domestic content-compliant cells for independent module manufacturers? How are manufacturers managing this challenge?

The shortage is real because demand for domestic-content-compliant cells is increasing. Within this category, demand is particularly high for tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) cells.

Much of the existing domestic cell capacity is based on older monocrystalline technology, while demand is increasingly shifting toward TOPCon cells.

The market has begun accepting that sufficient TOPCon cell capacity may not be available until projects under construction are commissioned, stabilized, and operating at their intended capacity.

The mismatch between demand and available cell capacity will therefore continue for some time. Newer module manufacturers will find it particularly difficult to manage the shortage.

The introduction of the ALMM mandate had previously created supply bottlenecks. The government also plans to extend the list to include domestic wafer and ingot manufacturing by June 2028. Should the government reconsider the deadline?

The government frames policies and regulations after consulting industry stakeholders. It has discussed with the industry the time required to establish module, cell, wafer, and ingot manufacturing lines, and the implementation timelines have been determined through that process.

The ALMM requirement received several extensions in the past. Those repeated changes affected investor confidence because a regulation intended to support domestic manufacturing was repeatedly deferred.

The government’s firm approach to implementation timelines has sent a strong signal that the regulations will remain stable and that the industry must prepare accordingly. The broader objective is to achieve energy independence and establish domestic supply chains instead of relying on imports.

Since the timelines were finalized after industry consultations, I do not foresee a major problem. Serious manufacturers have already begun planning and should be able to establish cell, wafer, and ingot facilities within the stipulated period.

The solar industry has raised concerns about a shortage of skilled personnel for several years. Which areas of manufacturing face the biggest workforce gaps?

Most manufacturing lines are becoming automated. These lines may not require highly specialized personnel at every stage, but operators must have sufficient technical knowledge of the processes.

There is a huge need for trained personnel in research and development, quality control, and equipment maintenance. Manufacturers can procure advanced equipment, but they need skilled teams to operate it properly and achieve consistent throughput.

India also needs personnel capable of developing new technologies locally. Maintenance, quality control, and innovation are therefore the main areas where the industry requires better-trained professionals.

How is Rayzon addressing these workforce and research requirements? Does the company work with technical institutions, or does it rely on internal and on-the-job training?

Rayzon invested in its first research and development laboratory around five years ago. A senior professional with a doctorate in photovoltaics from the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay (IIT-B) leads the laboratory.

We have since expanded the team by adding specialists in encapsulants and solar cells. We want a significant part of our technology development to take place internally.

However, maintaining all the required research infrastructure within the company would be difficult. We have therefore partnered with two research institutions.

We are working with the University of New South Wales on projects intended to accelerate research into tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) technology.

We have also partnered with IIT-B for product development, product variations, employee training in cell technologies, and training related to the operation of cell manufacturing lines.

India moved from polycrystalline technology to monocrystalline products, while much of the country’s existing cell capacity remains based on earlier monocrystalline technologies. Which technologies will lead the Indian market in the future?

The recent return of earlier monocrystalline technology has largely resulted from the shortage of TOPCon cells. Without that shortage, it may not have returned to the market to the same extent.

TOPCon will lead the Indian market, followed by back-contact technology combined with tunnel oxide passivated contact structures.

Tandem-junction cells could represent the next stage of development. Manufacturers could add perovskite layers to TOPCon cells to achieve efficiency gains beyond the physical limits of conventional crystalline silicon technology.